The 78th Academy Awards will unroll Sunday March 5. Jon Stewart will be the host. I am not making fun when I say that this year’s Oscar telecast will be the lowest rated Oscar telecast in years. After all is said and done, no matter how many awareness commercials ABC runs on ESPN, no matter how many sponsors buy a half-minute commercial at $1.6–million, the Oscars will be seen by less people than any other Oscar ceremony in modern time.
The telecast will still draw between 40 and 45 million viewers, and that is considered sinking. If Fox wanted to outdraw the Oscars they could show an episode of American Idol, but instead they are showing the Michael Bay directed Bad Boys 2. See, there is honor among thieves.
Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, Brokeback Mountain, and Capote - are all worthy films. But don’t you also wonder why The History of Violence, The Upside of Anger, The Constant Gardener, Grizzly Man, The New World, The World’s Faster Indian or Match Point were virtually shut out? The point being the Academy Awards can never be all things to all people. And the films chosen are the tip of the iceberg of total films made.
In one year’s time we could be sitting here discussing BABEL, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, V FOR VENDETTA, THE DEPARTED, ZODIAC, or maybe THE GOOD SHEPHERD, or even a film that was pushed back from last Christmas, ALL THE KING’S MEN.
2006 will see two films from studios that depict 9/11. Universal has Flight 93 in May, a retelling of the doomed flight hat crashed in Pennsylvania shot in real time, and from Paramount Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center starring Nicolas Cage.
The summer of 2006 will be a weekly battle of mega-movies with budgets north of $100-million and titles like MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3; X-MEN 3; THE POSIDEON ADVENTURE, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN’S CHEST, SUPERMAN RETURNS, or THE DA VINCI CODE.
In sharp contrast to the hundreds of millions Hollywood throws at tent pole pictures, the movie Crash had a budget just over $6-million. Industry reports put the amount Lionsgate has spent promoting Crash’s Oscar possibilities at $4-million. Usually a studio will send out at the very most 15,000 maybe 20,000 screeners of a film for an Oscar campaign. Part of Lionsgate’s cost included the 130,000 DVD screeners of Crash that were sent to, well, everyone but the people here in this room.
Hollywood likes to shine a light on its artistic contributions and if you ban a film they will surely come to its defense. You have to imagine that most of the Academy members vote with their artistic passion – for what the really feel is the best contender. Then you have your first standard deviation of people who will cast their ballot according to what their friends vote for. Do you really think that what a critic’s group or Golden Globe member rallies behind has that much credibility with the various Actors, Directors, Producers, Executives, Art Directors, Cinematographers, Editors, Writers, Sound and Visual Effects artisans and Members-At-Large of the Academy?
One must also consider what I call the Cold Mountain effect of certain films. While Cold Mountain was nominated for 7 Academy Awards it only won one (Best Supporting Actress) and was not favored by the Hollywood community from the point of view of runaway production. Cold Mountain was shot in Eastern Europe and many of the voters are people who live and work in California. Another film that is nominated this year in the foreign film category, Paradise Now, is the subject of slanderous email and verbal campaigns by people objecting to its nation of origin – the film is listed as both from Palestine and the Palestine Authority on two different Academy web sites.
Memoirs of a Geisha, despite mainlining at the box office, has more than a good chance at picking up a couple of technical and craft awards this year. It was mostly shot on a recreation Japanese village constructed just outside L.A.
There are always the annual Oscar parties and brouhahas, but is anybody really watching? The last time I checked films like Brown Bunny and now, Manderlay, will not play theatrically in Houston because it’s the last stop on the train schedule. The Landmark Theatres affiliate Magnolia Pictures’ touring show of Oscar short films will not be playing in Houston because we’re not hip enough, although the program has bookings in over a dozen (smaller) U.S. cities.
If you’ve seen the Best Picture choices you see more films than the average bear. Most people have not seen Brokeback Mountain (USA Today put the number at 12-million in North America) but perceive it as a gay cowboy movie. That is incorrect. If you want to see a film about gay men as portrayed by straight actors see The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert with Terence Stamp, Guy Pearce, and Hugo Weaving.
Truman Capote will be the subject of a film coming out later this year from director Doug McGrath and the cast includes Sandra Bullock as Lee Harper and Daniel Craig as Perry Smith. The actor playing Capote previously supplied the voice of Dobby the Elf in the Harry Potter films.
My choice is Good Night, and Good Luck but my choice never wins. Kind of like the Presidential elections.
On a side note, movie theaters are only hurting themselves by refusing to innovate. Sooner, rather than later, major studios will release DVDs on the same day and date as the theatrical release. And they will do that because it will bring in more money than the current economic model. Movie theaters by contrast will continue to lose audiences until they re-define the movie going experience as something more than stadium seating and bottled water. Consider soundproof plexi-glass booths with the sound piped in for people who want to watch movies and talk on their cell phones at the same time. Again, my choices never win.
Let’s take it category by category. With the exception of short subjects, documentaries and foreign films, for which members must sign-in and view in-person, the various branches on the Academy determine their respective nominees from a list of eligible films, and those final nominations are voted on by the entire Academy body. While my methods for choosing the Oscar winners are far from foolproof, I always accurately pick better than 50-percent. I’m soooo much smoother than Matthew McConaughey in that crap movie Two For the Money.
NOTE: I won't bore you with my choices but I did get 17 out of 24 ... I missed Best Picture and Best Actress ...